DAY FOUR CHELTENHAM

1 30 : FOOTPAD 8/1,  2 pts win.

2 10 : SUPERB STORY 7/1 , 1 pt win.

2 50 : BARTERS HILL  4/1, 1 pt win and UP FOR REVIEW in betting w/o fav market , 1 pt win 10/1.

3 30 : ON HIS OWN : 66/1, half pt win and DJAKADAM , 2 pts win at 3/1.

4 10 : ON THE FRINGE  2 pts win 11/4.

4 50 : IBIS DU RHEU  18/1, 1 pt win.

5 30 : ROCK THE WORLD 11/1, 1 pt win.

DAY THREE CHELTENHAM, PAIN.

All pain for us so far with a virtual wipe out, I needed Campeador big time yesterday but of course he fell at the last when in with every chance. The rest were just poor.

1 30 : 1 pt win OUTLANDER 5/1.

2 10 : 1 pt win LEAVE AT DAWN 13/2.

2 50 : VALSEUR LIDO , without the favourite , 1 pt 11/2.

3 30 : 1 pt win ALPHA DES OBEAUX 8/1.

4 10 : 1 pt win JOHN’S SPIRIT 6/1.

4 50 : 1  pt each way TEA IN TRANSVAAL 22/1.

5 30 : 1 pt win DOCTOR HARPER 11/2.

 

 

 

 

CHELTENHAM DAY TWO. GENIUS MULLINS.

Let’s hope we can improve from yesterday.

Neptune Novice Hurdle 1 30 : I am already on a loser ante post on my main bet but I also suggested a one point win on A TOI PHIL at 12/1 and I am sticking with that.He is a very decent sort. He is only 15/2 now. He is trained by the great Willie Mullins. The maestro has also re routed YORKHILL to this race and he is a massive danger. I think either of those two can overturn the supposedly unbeatable favourite Yanworth. So the bet is A TOI PHIL with YORKHILL the big danger.

RSA Chase 2 10 : This column has been very sweet on ROI DES FRANCS before and he is great value at 12/1 for this event. He will find it very tough against the two hotpots but if he can get in to a good rhythm he is well capable of serving it up to them. One point win at 12/1 PP.

Coral Cup 2 50 : I just have to go for another Willie Mullins animal here. ARBE DE VIE looks to have a fair shot in this and is basically unexposed. He ran only once this season and that was in a chase but it is significant that connections have decided to come back to the smaller obstacles. One point win at 12/1 PP.

Champion Chase 3 30 : Willie Mullins is a genius and I have no doubt but that he has a champion in the shape of the odds on favourite UN DE SCEAUX. I would say the only danger to him is a fall or some other misfortune. The price that he is though means we have to look for value elsewhere and where better than Mullin’s other representative FELIX YONGER. He is very talented too and can chase the good thing home. 1 point on FELIX in the betting without the favourite market at 5/1 with PP.

Cross Country Chase 4 10 : Enda Bolger can take this race but with which one. He has the warm favourite in Josies Orders but I am going to back his other two representatives. One point win on QUANTITATIVEEASING at 15/2 and one point win on CANTLOW at 16/1 with PP.

Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 4 50 : CAMPEADOR was not too far behind some really smart sorts over the Christmas period and he has apparently been working very well coming into this. One point win at 9/1.

Champion Bumper : This is getting really boring but I have to go for Willie Mullins again in a race that he loves to win. He has any amount of chances as he is mob handed but the one I like best is AVENIR DUNE VIE. He will take all the beating. One point win at 8/1 PP.

Best of luck…

DAY ONE, UNDONE BY MISTAKES.

The site lost two points on the day and five more on ante post when taking Min and a non runner into account.

The ground on my figures is good to firm, firm in places and it is disgraceful for the course management to produce a surface like that for the flagship meeting. Horses are going to break down and die on that type of going. Instead of lining the horses up at the start and banning the jockeys they should cop on and do their job. There was at least two fatalities today.

ANNIE POWER should really have been going for her third Champion hurdle in a row today after Willie made one of his very few mistakes by not running her in the Champion two years ago [ he wanted Hurricane Fly to win it] and of course she would have beaten Faugheen in it last year on my speed figures so that is a shame in a way.

Min made a horrendous mistake early on in the first and it could have been interesting only for that but the winner, who I did flag up as the danger in my ante post column was first rate.

Douvan is an absolute monster and our bet on Vaniteaux would have collected bar his fall at the last.

Kruzhlinen was fifth and would surely have been so much closer bar a lung bursting mistake.

Sempre Medici’s race was over at the first when pulling back muscles when overjumping and sprawling, don’t forget him come later in the season. Nichols Canyon was superb in defeat despite clouting the final obstacle and would have preferred slower ground.

Vroum Vroum Mag could easily drop back to the Champion hurdle distance no problem or go out to the Gold Cup trip, she is just awesome.

Pont Alexandre was travelling best of all and would have had a terrific chance of winning but sadly broke down and apparently destroyed.

Bridgets Pet took us out of trouble with his fourth place at 33/1.

 

Tomorrow later…

 

CHELTENHAM DAY ONE. A WILLIE MULLINS FEAST.

Historically, this site does very well at Cheltenham and here’s hoping that we can get the job done again this time round. It is a viciously difficult meeting to make money at so please only bet what you can afford to lose.

1 30  Supreme Novices Hurdle : I have already advised a four points win on MIN at 13/8 and I am as confident about his chance as one can be about an animal running at this big meeting. MIN has drifted to a current 9/4 with Paddy Power.

2 10 Arkle Chase : There is little or no point opposing the hot odds on shot and brilliant DOUVAN. He should win easily if having a clear round. I am suggesting a bet on VANITEAUX in the betting without the favourite market for which he is 15/8 with Paddy Power. One point at that price.

2 50 Ultima Handicap Chase : I really like the chances of KRUZHLININ who is Grand National bound after this. He is on a career high mark but could easily be up to defying it and as he goes well fresh is worth a punt. One point win at 10/1 with PP.

3 30 Champion Hurdle : I have already advised a one point win on NICHOLS CANYON at  12/1 so lets hope he does it but I have another one for a bet also. This race has changed a lot with Annie Power now favourite and she has a wonderful chance and could easily win it. However, she is no value but one that is comes in the shape of her stable companion and outsider SEMPRE MEDICI. I really rate this fellow as he has a blinding turn of foot and must come into the reckoning here, especially as an each way prospect. I will be brave though and advise a one point win at 22/1 with PP but I believe he is bigger elsewhere so shop around.

4 10 OLBG Mares Hurdle : I feel that Willie Mullins can strike again with the brilliant VROUM VROUM MAG. She is miles clear of her opposition on my ratings but as she is too short at even money I will include her in a 2 points win treble to go with MIN 9/4, DOUVAN 4/11 and VROUM VROUM MAG at even money. That will pay out at 7.86 to 1 if it comes off with PP.

4 50 National Hunt Chase : Another Willie Mullin’s candidate catches my eye here. PONT ALEXANDRE has been a little below par recently but is a proper horse on his day and if eliminating a tendency to jump to his right he will take the beating. I think he will see out the extended trip no problem. One point win at 1o/1 with PP.

5 30 Close Brothers Handicap Chase. I have been waiting for these drying conditions on an undulating track like this for BRIDGETS PET for some time and in a wickedly competitive affair where there is only a weight spread of only four pounds from top to bottom I rate his chance as excellent. The price is a juicy 25/1 with PP. I must advise one point each way at those odds.

Be lucky………….

 

EXCLUSIVE IRISH GOLD CUP AND OTHER SECTIONAL TIMES.

There has been much speculation as to what would have happened if Valseur Lido had not unshipped Ruby Walsh at the last in the Irish Gold Cup last Saturday. Most observers, bar Matt Chapman, believe Carlingford Lough was coming with a wet sail and would have prevailed in any event. I am publishing my sectional times and let’s see can we make sense of it all as the clock never ever lies and the answer is within. I will compare the three chases on the day, one of which was the novice event over a shorter distance but using adjustments I can compare and come up with my final figures. I must keep a few of my trade secrets but basically everything is here and I will give my findings later on in a follow up blog

OPENING SECTION.         MIDDLE SECTION.  THIRD LAST TO HOME.

Outlander.               77.36 sec.              182.08                         71.36        TOTAL : 330.8

Carlingford Lough. 122.22 sec.            190.84                         76.56        TOTAL 389.52

You Must Know Me: 125.76.                  197.32                         77.76        TOTAL 400.84

I will break it down further to show what speed they were doing over the last two fences to home. The third last is in graph above.

Second last to finish.

Outlander  54.04,  Carlingford Lough 57.44, You Must Know Me 58.72

Last Fence to finish.

Outlander 22.48,  Carlingford Lough 22.48, You Must Know Me 23.8

Digest those and back later.

 

 

 

POOR START TO 2016

My site started off this campaign with a disappointing seven point loss so I hope to turn that around soon.

I will be publishing my sectional times for Leopardstown which is something I would not normally do but they will make fascinating reading.