Plus seven points on our first day , I will be trying very hard today as well but the racing is tough, as one would expect but I am hopeful, there are some very interesting value bets and as ever just follow the staking system blindly and you will be fine.

Kempton 12 40 : One of our German imports, AGENOR,  is in at the deep end and that is why he is 20/1. I wouldn’t let the price put me off completely as I know what this fellow is capable of when he has conditions to suit, soft ground, a galloping course and a trip. This track is not ideal and he will need it and his jumping will improve as a result of this outing but I still expect a bold show and if he is anywhere on the premises between the last two flights then there won’t be many coming home stronger. 1 pt win at 20/1 PP.

Kempton 1 10 : A tough contest with God’s Own having a big edge with experience of the larger obstacles over the inexperienced one’s like MELODIC RENDEVOUZ but if the forecast rains arrive then the latter can have a huge say.  I feel he has a huge chance granted a clear round. 1 pt win MELODIC RENDEVOUZ at 9/2 PP.

Kempton 1 40 : BALDER SUCCES has so much in his favour it is frightening but so is the price so just a 1 pt win at 6/4 with PP.

Kempton 2 15 : If ever SILVER COMMANDER will win a race then today must be it. Although up 4 lbs for his last run I feel he can knit the whole thing together at long last against a decidedly moderate bunch for a race of this class. 1 pt win at a lowly 4/1 with PP but that should be way bigger later.

Kempton 2 50 : I am punting a similar type to the last race in this one but I am very confident of a huge run from WOODLAND WALK. She is on the verge of a victory and the more rain the better. I see Keshi Pearl as the only danger but she is that. 1 pt win WOODLAND WALK at 5/1 PP and that should also go longer.

Kempton 3 25: CHESTERFIELD has to give a whopping 19 pounds to the favourite Chatez but I think he can do it. He is improving all the time and I hope there is a strong pace not like what happened in the last yesterday. 2 pts win at 9/2 with PP.

Chepstow 12 55 : The longer the trip and the tougher the slog on heavy ground is what MINELLAHALFCENTURY wants and  he will take the beating here. 1 pt win at 11/2.

Chepstow 1 55 : There might be a swing of 6 pounds in favour of Kerazak for a neck defeat by OLD GUARD at Newbury the last day but the Tom Malone purchase is very lightly raced and is a fine specimen of a horse and can only improve for his debut run over obstacles. He will relish underfoot conditions and I believe he will win. 2 pts win and nap OLD GUARD at a smallish looking 11/4 with PP. I will be surprised if that is not bigger later.

Chepstow 2 35 : Welsh National : ONE IN A MILAN is one pound lower than last year’s close 4th and with a nice hurdle prep this time round can give you a great run for your money. He has proven form in big fields and soft going so a 1 pt win at 14/1 PP.

Leopardstown 12 20 : Lightning could strike twice for the McDonagh /Bolger partnership with THEOPHILUS who showed very smart form in two flat runs this backend . Willie’s horse is just ok ,not above average, so this is winnable. 1 pt win at 7/1.

Leopardstown `1 20 : What a race. Uxizandre will be tough to beat and there will be a huge pace on so that will help him, he might even force it himself. He is the one to beat but I am taking a shot with BRIGHT NEW DAWN who is very smart going left handed and is terrific value at 10/1 with PP. 1 pt win.

Leopardstown 1 50 : A very poor Grade 1 save for Nichols Canyon and basically he should waltz in but for betting value purposes I propose a 1 pt win on MCKINLEY in the betting w/o market at 6/1 with PP. He is improving .

Leopardstown 2 20 : BUSTED TYCOON looks thrown in off only 128 and has no problem with ground or being fresh. 2 pts win at 7/2 PP.

Leopardstown 2 55 : FOXROCK has a tall order off top weight but had a very easy prep for this and I am having a 1 pt win at 5/1 with PP.

Busy day so I hope to show a profit.


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