ST. STEPHEN’S DAY. CAN IRVING DO IT ? GILGAMBOA CERTAINLY CAN.
Good day all. Hope everyone is having some sort of Christmas as there are a lot of people and families out there that this time of year is just too much of a burden for a whole series or reasons.
I am starting my 2015 campaign a bit early and I predict that it will be yet another profitable one and hopefully with more frequent posts. Keep an eye on my Twitter account but I will try post all selections and the ”inside” information here.
All our bets will be with Paddy Power for transparency and points tallying purposes. They are the best around anyway and will lay you a serious bet unlike the other so called large firms. My aim for the site is to be plus 100 points after the Galway Festival. The secret is to back every selection and to stick with the strength of the bet proposed. We will go through some periods of losses but overall we will win.
I will be doing some ante post bets as well and my first one up is a 1 pt win on Waterford to win the 2015 Munster Hurling Championship at a massive 10/1. This is surely some price when you consider we are playing Cork in the semi final and we are so capable of beating them. Our opponents in the final will most likely be Limerick who were desperately unlucky in the All Ireland this year 2014 and are possible outright winners next year. But we can match them and while our upcoming League battle against them will be interesting it will not be a season defining game. There are major changes after taking place in or home county be it management team, playing staff and at board level. I would like to wish our new officers all the best and indeed wish our Chairman, Paddy Joe Ryan a heartily congratulations for his tenure ahead and I think it is a good time for Paddy Joe to be at the helm as the tide is turning big time , especially as I say for our senior hurlers. Fintan O’Connor is a huge addition to Derek and Dan and no stone will be left unturned. I wish the new backroom staff all the best also. There are plenty of knockers out there but it is time now for them to get behind the set up and lets go for it. Come on Waterford.
Kempton 12 50 : Sempre Medici’s hurdling at Cork on debut was atrocious but he still hosed up, he is on the smallish side and will be dwarfed by the giant, JOLLYALLEN. The latter is very smart and will need a much sterner test in time but this will be run at a breakneck pace with the fancied Arzal in the lineup so there should be no excuse. I am confident about JOLLYALLEN, 2 points win at 2/1 PP and sp greater applies to all bets with this firm.
Kempton 1 25 : KNOCK HOUSE looks really good to me. 1 pt win 9/2.
Kempton 2 00 : You will say I have had one too many when I am going for a quick A P McCoy treble and i the shape of rank outsider WARDEN HILL. This horse is way overpriced and we have to have a go at such odds, he has bags of stamina and seems a sound jumper. 1 pt win at 33/1.
Kempton 2 35: Our pride and joy and German purchase IRVING takes on the mighty Faugheen. It will be some race and is anything but a foregone conclusion for the much vaunted favourite. There is no doubt Faugheen could go on to be a brilliant champion and he has put up some wild times on the clock but this will be a speed test and he has not met the calibre of an IRVING yet. IRVING has won 9 of his 13 lifetime starts and had legitimate excuses in 3 of those defeats. He had a good day out last time in the Fighting Fifth following his last flight fall when about to win the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and his hurdling was very slick at Newcastle whereas Faugheen learned nothing in that substandard Ascot event. How fast will Faugheen go from flagfall and make it a dire test or will Ruby try and stack them up and kick before the turn in ? I am hoping Walsh chooses the latter option because IRVING has a blinding turn of pace and should be able to outkick the favourite. A fascinating contest and with the betting offering huge value we must punt a 2 points win on IRVING at 5/1 PP.
Kempton 3 10 : No matter what way I dissect this King George I come back in favour of SILVINIACO CONTI. I really wanted to oppose him but there are big question marks against his rivals. How will Champagne Fever cope with an unrelenting pace over a trip he has never been over bar a pt to pt and he has lost all three times he ran in December? Has Cue Card ever recovered from his massive Betfair Bowl win last year and was his wind ”broken” there,[pardon the pun] ? Does Dynaste really stay in a ferocious run Grade 1 over this trip ? Does Al Ferof stay ? John’s Spirit here ? Does Menorah ever deliver at this level ? Just has to be SILVINIACO CONTI, 2 pts win at 5/2 PP.
Kempton 3 45 : Alternatif could be very well handicapped on his French form and will be all the rage but there is one talented lunatic in the field and if he can run straight in the last couple of hundreds of yards instead of hanging away his chance then we could be in for a nice payout. That animal is GO WEST YOUNG MAN and a 1 pt win at 7/1 PP.
Leopardstown 1 20 : You are not going to get rich backing 1/3 shots and Kalkir is such an animal, he maybe the real deal and should win easily but he has yet to run a time and whilst he is rated in the highest regard at Closutton and is 2nd fav for the Triumph, I am happy to have a 1 pt win on THUDER ZONE at 8/1 PP who created a good impression on his hurdles debut just six days ago to cause an upset.
Leopardstown 1 50 : SPACIOUS SKY is absolutely thrown in off this mark, will love this track, the break of 61 days ,the extended trip and a featherweight of 10st 3 lbs. 2 pts win at 7/2.
Wincanton 1 05: I think QUICK DECISION has learned from some scratchy jumping since switching codes and this could be his day. 1 pt win at 9/2 PP.
Wincaton 1 40 : I know it looks ultra competitive and the price is short but BATAVIR looks an absolute slam dunk and he is a nap really. 4 pts win at 7/4 PP. I don’t really need to get into the nuts and bolts of this event but if BATAVIR runs his race then he wins.
Wincanton 2 50 : Another one of our purchases from Germany, ORDENSRITTER, can go very close in this and hopefully register his third win since we bought him and his first over hurdles, he is very well handicapped so a 1 pt win at opening show in morning with PP as there are no early prices.
Market Rasen 2 45 : COMEBACK COLIN can land this. 1 pt win at opening show PP.
Wolverhampton 3 40 : 2 pts win GOLD TRAIL AT 9/4. Looks to have plenty in hand.
Limerick 2 05 : GILGAMBOA is very smart and I expect him to win this very tough race and go on to be one of the top novices this season. 2 pts win at 2/1 PP.
I might have another update before racing. Best of luck.