SOUTHWELL. BETTING OPPORTUNITY.
2 50 Southwell. I think we have a real shot here in this staying race.
Calculating won last time at this track and loves the place, he has been prolific on this fibresand surface over the years and is favourite. He has also slid way down in the handicap ratings and will be favoured by many. However I give him little chance. That win last day was in a horrendous event and I think he will get horribly outpaced in todays hotter race. I am passing him over.
Sentorian is second in the betting market and has shrewd connections, he travels well and is always held up for a late swoop. These tactics are very unlikely to work at this venue and furthermore it is his fibresand debut and it is very difficult to win in such circumstances. I cannot have him.
Sommersturm has been in grand form and is slightly interesting but a high mark and the fact that he has bombed out in his only three tries here tempers any enthusiasm. Unlikely.
Mediterranean Sea loves this place also but a high mark and a need to be fresher makes it easy to overlook him now.
Low Key has been thrashed here twice. No.
DISCAY looks an outstanding bet .This very lightly raced four year old is from the all powerful Johnston yard and is typical of one of theirs. He looks horribly one paced but game and is one from two on this surface. This is only his seventh lifetime start and is open to a lot of improvement. He got caught out when the pace quickened off the home turn the last day here and only stayed on at the one pace. He looks the only pace in this contest and hopefully Joe Fanning will kick on from thr outset on this his first try over fourteen furlongs. I believe he will relish the step up in trip. I think he will have them stone cold from a long way out and rate him a nap.
2 points win DISCAY at 7/2 with Bet 365.