FRANKEL OR NOT ?? SAT. OCTOBER 19TH.
A better day today yielding a 9 point profit.
I remarked on this site some time ago that I thought Frankel would just get the better of Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars in a fictitious event but I was premature in my summation. I was over reacting to what I had just seen in the Juddmonte International.Sheer excitement got the better of me. I was wrong.As it stands ,there is no way Frankel can be rated superior to these two greats. He is behind them.He has never beaten the class of opponents that they routinely took on. They were International performers on the highest stage whereas Sir Henry’s pride and joy has only been campaigned domestically. I challenge anyone to a debate. The UK press and racing family have gone overboard. I suppose it is hard to blame them , after all he is one of their own and he is current.
Frankel faces another small field tomorrow .He will not have it all his own way for the first time since his debut where he struggled to beat Nathanial on soft. This is the only time that the rather odd and plain looking Frankel has raced on squidge and since he has matured his action suggests that he will not like today’s heavy ground. He does have a high enough knee action but ,and this is a serious but, he points his toe before he hits the grass. This suggests he will not like these bog like conditions at all.
There is another major worry for Frankel.The real great one , our friend Nick Mordin , has measured the length of the stride of Cecil’s horse and it comes in at a whopping twenty six feet and nine inches. This is big. What has that got to do with anything you might argue ? Plenty is my answer. I will explain.
Every horse has his/her particular style of running. Their physical make up and their athleticism dictate so. All bar one of Frankel’s victories have come on straight galloping tracks or on the turning courses of Goodwood and York where there is a long punishing home run of over 3 furlongs. He was able to use his huge stride to put away the opposition when he clicked into gear . The exception was at this track when he struggled to beat Zoffany in last year’s St James Palace Stakes when he floundered late on .Ascot has a short homestraight and will not suit a horse with a stride this length. It can be argued of course that his young jockey Tom Queally committed too soon that day ,acting on the instructions of his trainer but I think otherwise.I believe when he made his sweeping move around the bend that the centrifugal force was acting against him and will do so again today.
Those are two factors which could get him beaten, soft/ heavy ground and an unsuitable track. There is a third . It’s in the shape of the French superstar Cirrus Des Aigles.
I tipped him to win this last year at 12/1 and am doing so again this year.He is some animal.All tracks ,trips and ground conditions come alike to him . Nothing fazes this French horse. He has the unique ability also to sprint the last five furlongs of a 1m2f race. Frankel has not faced a rival of this calibre before. Another huge worry for the British horse is that Cirrus Des Aigles simply adores the mud .He has beaten the best before and I think he will win.
2 pts win Cirrus Des Aigles at 9/2.
I will post another blog later for rest of Ascot [ 2 already advised] and Cheltenham.