FRIDAY THE 13TH RACING

Good day to everyone, this is my first blog on horse racing to compliment our daily selections which are posted on Twitter. I hope the fact that it falls on Friday 13th is not a bad omen for us all !!

There is terrific racing racing ,with the Newmarket July meeting  and the Magnet cup meet at York plus four more fixtures. It is to York that I go to for my first selection.The race is the 3 45 and the horse is Cardinal Walter. He is one of my favourite type of bets at this time of year,namely, a fast improving three year old taking on his elders in a weight for age handicap.

Let me try and quickly explain this ‘ weight for age scale’. It was introduced by Admiral Rous in the late 1860’s .He maintained that younger horses [2 or 3 year olds ], taking on older horses should receive extra weight because they were immature as he reasoned they did not mature until they were at least 4 years old. He set up a sliding scale of weights for the calendar year which narrowed from March  through to December. Critically ,while was correct in his thinking ,he was too generous to the amount of weight the 3 year olds would receive  from their older counterparts especially from June onwards. The three year olds are improving so rapidly at this time of year that they don’t merit such a generous allowance.

This creates a huge betting opportunity for serious backers who can identify the right type of 3 year old .  Cardinal Walter is such a horse.

Cardinal Walter has only raced three times to date and is set to carry bottom weight of only 8 stone. He has the fastest speed rating ,will love the softer going and should thrive up the long home straight. If I have a concern it’s that he pulled hard the last day and was lucky to get up but he has had a thirty day break since that run and hopefully his very shrewd trainer David Simcock has knocked that keenness out of him.

So I am going for a 2 pts win on Cardinal Walter  at 7/2 with Paddy Power.

Regards,

Fourmileracing.

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One response to “FRIDAY THE 13TH RACING”

  1. adrian says :

    well written piece.

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